# Corona math1121

In RKI septimanalis relatio 11.11.2021 inscripta est, 22 quod $$36\%$$ aegros coronae supra 60 annorum in cura unitatis intensiva iam plene vaccinated erant. In hoc etate $$87\%$$ omnino vaccinated hoc loco in tempore fuerunt (vide p. 18).

Sit be:

• $$G$$: Super LX annos natorum vaccinated
• $$U$$: Super LX annos natorum non vaccinated
• $$I$$: Plus LX annos natorum in intensive cura

Nunc est

$$P(G) = 0,87 \wedge P(U) = 0,13.$$

Etiam is

$$P(G|I) = \frac{P(G \cap I)}{P(I)} = 0,36 \wedge P(U|I) = \frac{P(U \cap I)}{P(I)} = 0,64.$$

Sic est

$$P(G \cap I) = 0,36 \cdot P(I) \wedge P(U \cap I) = 0,64 \cdot P(I)$$

et propter

$$P(I|U) = \frac{P(I \cap U)}{P(U)} = \frac{P(U \cap I)}{P(U)} = \frac{0,64 \cdot P(I)}{0,13} \Rightarrow P(I) = \frac{0,13 \cdot P(I|U)}{0,64}.$$

Sequitur

$$P(I|G) = \frac{P(I \cap G)}{P(G)} = \frac{P(G \cap I)}{P(G)} = \frac{0,36 \cdot P(I)}{0,87} = \frac{0,36 \cdot \frac{0,13 \cdot P(I|U)}{0,64}}{0,87} = \frac{0,36 \cdot 0,13}{0,64 \cdot 0,87} \cdot P(I|U) \approx 0,08 \cdot P(I|U).$$

Hoc significat periculum hominum super 60 cum corona desinente in intensiva cura unitatis plus quam 10 times maius illis qui non vaccinated quam pro illis qui vaccinated sunt.

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