Impikiswano yokulinganisa kukaNick Bostrom ilula ngokulula kwaye icacile. Ayizami ukungqina ukuba siphila kwimodeli, kodwa endaweni yoko yenza izinto ezintathu ezinokwenzeka, enye yazo inokuba iyinyani. U-Elon Musk ukwathethelela ithisisi efanayo, eyenza ukuba umbono uwazi kuluntu ngokubanzi. Iphepha elisemthethweni lingaphezulu kweminyaka eli-14 kwaye amaphepha amaninzi nje amafutshane. Isiteyitimenti esiphambili kulula ukusiqonda kwaye sihambelana.
Ezi iisimboli zilandelayo zaziswa kuqala:
- \(f_P\): Iqhekeza lempucuko yabantu elisaphilayo kwaye lifikelele kwinqanaba lokufa
- \(f_I\): Iqhekeza lempucuko yabantu elinomdla wokulinganisa ookhokho
- \(f_{sim}\): Iqhekeza lempucuko yabantu elihlala kwimizekelo yookhokho
- \(\overline{H}\): Umndilili wenani labantu abahlala kwimpucuko yangaphambi kokubhubha komntu
- \(\overline{N_I}\): Umndilili wenani lezinto ezenziwa ngookhokho ezenziwa yimpucuko yasemva komntu enomdla kwimodeli yezinyanya
Emva koko:
- \(f_I \cdot \overline{N_I}\): Umndilili wenani lokulinganisa kookhokho okwenziwa yimpucuko yasemva kobuntu
- \(f_P \cdot \overline{H}\): Umyinge wenani labantu abaye bafikelela kwinqanaba lokufa
- \(f_P \cdot \overline{H} \cdot f_I \cdot \overline{N_I}\) : Umndilili wenani labantu kwimidlalo yokulinganisa (ulingisa kanye iqhekeza \(f_P \cdot \overline{H}\) )
- \(f_P \cdot \overline{H} \cdot f_I \cdot \overline{N_I} +
\overline{H}\): Umndilili wenani labantu abahlala kukulinganisa kookhokho okanye kwimpucuko yangaphambi kokuba umntu eze
Ngoku i-quotient yamanqanaba amabini okugqibela ayangqamana ngqo neqhezu labantu abahlala kwimizekelo:
$$f_{sim} = \frac{f_P \cdot \overline{H} \cdot f_I \cdot \overline{N_I}}{f_P \cdot \overline{H} \cdot f_I \cdot \overline{N_I} + \overline{H}}$$
Asibandakanyi \(\overline{H}\) kwaye sinciphise (esi sisiseko sempikiswano):
$$f_{sim} = \frac{f_P \cdot f_I \cdot \overline{N_I}}{f_P \cdot f_I \cdot \overline{N_I} + 1}$$
I-Bostrom ngoku ithatha enkulu kakhulu \(\overline{N_I}\)
Oku kubangela la matyala alandelayo:
- Ityala: \(f_P \approx 0\)
- a) \(f_I \approx 0 \Rightarrow f_{sim} \approx 0\)
- b) \(f_I > \epsilon \approx 0 \Rightarrow f_{sim} \approx 0\)
- Ityala: \(f_P > \epsilon \approx 0\)
- a) \(f_I \approx 0 \Rightarrow f_{sim} \approx 0\)
- b) \(f_I > \epsilon \approx 0 \Rightarrow f_{sim} \approx 1\)
Isishwankathelo, ubuncinci kula mathathu alandelayo kufezekisiwe:
- \(f_P \approx 0\): Ubuntu buyafa ngaphambi kokuba kufikelelwe kwinqanaba lomntu
- \(f_I \approx 0\): Akukho mpucuko yasemva komntu enomdla kwimodeli yokuvela kookhokho
- \(f_{sim} \approx 1\): Ingcamango yokulinganisa: Siphila kwimodeli yookhokho.
Ukuze wandise ukubanakho kwe \(f_{sim} \approx 1\) (ethi iBostrom icacise malunga ne \(\frac{1}{3}\) ), sinokuthi kwixesha elizayo siqwalasele amanye amathuba e \(f_P \approx 0\) kunye \(f_I \approx 0\) .
Ukuba ingcamango yokulinganisa iyinyani, ke ngoko: Ekubeni \(f_{sim} \approx 1 \neq 1\) , eli tyala alikuthinteli ukuba thina (okanye inzala yethu) sikwiseti \(\overline{H}\) kwaye, umzekelo, siphakathi kwabantu bokuqala ukwenza ukulinganisa ookhokho. Nangona kunjalo, ingongoma ebalulekileyo kukuba oku akunakwenzeka kakhulu. Ke ngoko, ukuba asiphili kwi-simulation okwangoku, kunokwenzeka kakhulu ukuba inzala yethu ayisoze yenze ukulinganisa ookhokho.
Enye yezinto ezifuneka kuqala kwi-Bostrom yinto ebizwa ngokuba yi-substrate Independence (okt ukuqonda akukho kuphunyezwa kuphela kwinethiwekhi esekwe kwikhabhoni, kwinethiwekhi yebhayoloji kwingqondo, kodwa nakwisilicon kwikhompyuter). Kunika umdla: Ukuzimela kombono (kwaye nangayiphi na into efunekayo) yinto enokwenzeka yokulinganisa kwimidlalo yokulinganisa (ngalo naliphi na inqanaba lobunzulu bendlwane).
Ngokoluvo lwam, intsingiselo yenyani ye-simulation hypothesis yobomi bethu inokushwankathelwa phantsi kwesiqubulo esithi "Ngubani okhathalelayo?" -Kodwa ingxoxo yokulinganisa ngokuqinisekileyo ibubungqina obunomdla.
Okwangoku, eminye imisebenzi enika umdla nguNick Bostrom kwingxaki yobuhle bokulala , ingxoxo yemini yentshabalalo kunye nokuzicingela ukuba kufanelekile kufanele kukhankanywe.