# Doodda jilitaanka0419

Nick Bostrom dooddiisa jilitaanku waa mid fudud oo cad. Iskuma dayi karto inay cadeyso inaan ku nool nahay jilid, laakiin taa bedelkeeda si xarrago leh ayay u dejineysaa seddex fursadood, oo mid ka mid ay tahay inuu run noqdo. Elon Musk wuxuu sidoo kale u ololeeyaa aragti la mid ah, taas oo fikradda u ogeysiisay dadweyne ballaaran. Warqadda rasmiga ah waxay ka weyn tahay 14 sano oo sida bogag badan u gaaban yihiin. Bayaanka dhexe waa fududahay in la fahmo oo la iswaafajiyo.

Calaamadaha soo socda ayaa la soo saaray marka hore:

• $$f_P$$: Jajabka ilbaxnimada aadanaha ee badbaada oo gaadha marxaladda bini-aadamka
• $$f_I$$: Jajabka ilbaxnimada aadanaha ee daneynaya jilitaanka awoowayaasha
• $$f_{sim}$$: Jajabka ilbaxnimada aadanaha ee ku nool jilitaanka awoowayaasha
• $$\overline{H}$$: Tiro celcelis ahaan dadka ku nool ilbaxnimo kahor aadanaha
• $$\overline{N_I}$$: Tirada celceliska jilitaanka abtirsiinyada ee ay sameeyeen ilbaxnimada aadanaha ka dib ee xiiseynaya jilitaanka awoowayaasha

• $$f_I \cdot \overline{N_I}$$: Tirada celceliska jilitaanka abtirsiinyada ee ay sameeyeen ilbaxnimada aadanaha ka dib
• $$f_P \cdot \overline{H}$$: Tiro celcelis ahaan dadka gaaray heer biniaadam
• $$f_P \cdot \overline{H} \cdot f_I \cdot \overline{N_I}$$ : Celceliska tirada dadka $$f_P \cdot \overline{H} \cdot f_I \cdot \overline{N_I}$$ awoowayaasha (waxaad si sax ah u $$f_P \cdot \overline{H}$$ jajab $$f_P \cdot \overline{H}$$ )
• $$f_P \cdot \overline{H} \cdot f_I \cdot \overline{N_I} + \overline{H}$$
: Celcelis ahaan dadka ku nool labada jilid ee awoowayaasha ama ilbaxnimada kahor aadanaha

Hadda qaybta labada erey ee ugu dambeysa waxay u dhigantaa jajabka dadka ku nool jilitaanka:

$$f_{sim} = \frac{f_P \cdot \overline{H} \cdot f_I \cdot \overline{N_I}}{f_P \cdot \overline{H} \cdot f_I \cdot \overline{N_I} + \overline{H}}$$

Waxaan ka reebnay $$\overline{H}$$ oo gaabinaynaa (kani sidoo kale waa udub-dhexaadka dooda):

$$f_{sim} = \frac{f_P \cdot f_I \cdot \overline{N_I}}{f_P \cdot f_I \cdot \overline{N_I} + 1}$$

Bostrom wuxuu hadda qaadanayaa mid aad u ballaaran $$\overline{N_I}$$ , oo uu qiil uga $$\overline{N_I}$$ ku saleysan qiyaasaha muxaafidka.

Tani waxay keenaysaa kiisaska soo socda:

1. Kiiska: $$f_P \approx 0$$
• a) $$f_I \approx 0 \Rightarrow f_{sim} \approx 0$$
• b) $$f_I > \epsilon \approx 0 \Rightarrow f_{sim} \approx 0$$
2. Kiiska: $$f_P > \epsilon \approx 0$$
• a) $$f_I \approx 0 \Rightarrow f_{sim} \approx 0$$
• b) $$f_I > \epsilon \approx 0 \Rightarrow f_{sim} \approx 1$$

Isku soo wada duuboo, ugu yaraan mid ka mid ah saddexda kiis ee soo socda ayaa la kulmay:

• $$f_P \approx 0$$: Bini'aadamnimada ayaa sii dhimanaysa ka hor inta aan la gaarin marxaladda bini-aadamka
• $$f_I \approx 0$$: Ma jiro ilbaxnimo ka dib aadanaha oo xiiseynaya jilitaanka awoowayaasha
• $$f_{sim} \approx 1$$: Qiyaasta jilitaanka: Waxaan ku nool nahay jilitaanka awoowayaasha

Si loo kordhiyo ixtimaalka $$f_{sim} \approx 1$$ (oo Bostrom ku qeexan yahay qiyaastii $$\frac{1}{3}$$ ), waxaan mustaqbalka sidoo kale ilaalin karnaa ixtimaallada kale ee $$f_P \approx 0$$ iyo $$f_I \approx 0$$ .

Haddii mala-awaalku run yahay, waxa soo socda ayaa khuseeya: Maaddaama $$f_{sim} \approx 1 \neq 1$$ , kiiskani kama reebayo annaga (ama faracyadeenna) ee ku jira set $$\overline{H}$$ oo waxay yihiin, tusaale ahaan, mid ka mid ah dadka ugu horreeya ee sameeya jilitaanka awoowayaasha. Qodobka oo dhan, si kastaba ha noqotee, waa in tani ay tahay mid aad u yar. Markaa haddaan ku noolaanaynin jilid hadda, waxaa jira ixtimaal sare oo ah in dhasheenna aysan waligood sameyn doonin jilid awoowe.

Mid ka mid ah shuruudaha looga baahan yahay Bostrom waa waxa loogu yeero madaxbanaanida aasaasiga ah (yacni miyirka laguma fulin karo oo keliya shabakadaha neerfaha ee ku saleysan kaarboon, laakiin sidoo kale kumbuyuutar ahaan). Sidoo kale xiiso leh: Ka madax bannaan fikradda (oo marna shardi looma baahna) waa suurtagalnimada jilitaanka jilitaanka (heer kasta oo buul ah).

Fikradayda, macnaha runta mala-awaalka nolosheena waxaa lagu soo koobi karaa halku-dhigga ah “Kumaa daryeelaya?” - laakiin doodda jilitaanka ayaa xaqiiqdii caddayn xiiso leh leh.

Waqtigan xaadirka ah, shaqooyinka kale ee xiisaha leh ee Nick Bostrom uu ka leeyahay dhibaatada quruxda hurdada , doodda qiyaamaha iyo fikradda is-tusitaanka guud waa in sidoo kale la sheegaa.

Dib u laabo