Impikiswano yokulingisa kaNick Bostrom ilula ngokumangazayo futhi icacile. Ayizami ukufakazela ukuthi siphila ekulingiseni, kepha kunalokho yakha ngobuciko amathuba amathathu, elinye lawo okumele libe yiqiniso. U-Elon Musk futhi ukhuthaza umbono ofanayo, owenza lo mbono waziwa emphakathini obanzi. Iphepha elisemthethweni selineminyaka engaphezu kwengu-14 ubudala futhi namakhasi amaningi afushane. Isitatimende esimaphakathi kulula ukusiqonda futhi sihlangene.
Izimpawu ezilandelayo zethulwa kuqala:
- \(f_P\): Ingxenyana yemiphakathi yabantu esindayo futhi ifinyelele esigabeni sangemva komuntu
- \(f_I\): Ingxenyana yemiphakathi yabantu enentshisekelo yokulingiswa kokhokho
- \(f_{sim}\): Ingxenyana yemiphakathi yabantu ehlala ngokulingiswa kokhokho
- \(\overline{H}\): Isilinganiso senombolo yabantu abahlala empucukweni yangaphambi kokuzalwa komuntu
- \(\overline{N_I}\): Inombolo emaphakathi yokufaniswa kokhokho okwenziwe yimpucuko yangemva komuntu enentshisekelo yokulingiswa kokhokho
Ngemuva kwalokho:
- \(f_I \cdot \overline{N_I}\): Inombolo emaphakathi yokufaniswa kokhokho okwenziwe yimpucuko yangemva komuntu
- \(f_P \cdot \overline{H}\): Isilinganiso senombolo yabantu abafinyelele esigabeni sangemva kokuba ngumuntu
- \(f_P \cdot \overline{H} \cdot f_I \cdot \overline{N_I}\) : Isilinganiso senombolo yabantu \(f_P \cdot \overline{H} \cdot f_I \cdot \overline{N_I}\) (ulingisa kahle ingxenyenamba \(f_P \cdot \overline{H}\) )
- \(f_P \cdot \overline{H} \cdot f_I \cdot \overline{N_I} +
\overline{H}\): Inombolo emaphakathi yabantu abahlala kokufaniswa kokhokho noma empucukweni yangaphambi kokuzalwa komuntu
Manje i-quotient yamatemu amabili wokugcina ifana ncamashi nengxenyana yabantu abahlala ekulingiseni:
$$f_{sim} = \frac{f_P \cdot \overline{H} \cdot f_I \cdot \overline{N_I}}{f_P \cdot \overline{H} \cdot f_I \cdot \overline{N_I} + \overline{H}}$$
Sikhipha \(\overline{H}\) futhi sifushanise (lokhu futhi kuyisisekelo sengxabano):
$$f_{sim} = \frac{f_P \cdot f_I \cdot \overline{N_I}}{f_P \cdot f_I \cdot \overline{N_I} + 1}$$
I-Bostrom manje ithatha enkulu kakhulu \(\overline{N_I}\) , \(\overline{N_I}\) , yezobuchwepheshe ngokususelwa ekulinganisweni okulondolozayo.
Lokhu kuphakamisa amacala alandelayo:
- Icala: \(f_P \approx 0\)
- a) \(f_I \approx 0 \Rightarrow f_{sim} \approx 0\)
- b) \(f_I > \epsilon \approx 0 \Rightarrow f_{sim} \approx 0\)
- Icala: \(f_P > \epsilon \approx 0\)
- a) \(f_I \approx 0 \Rightarrow f_{sim} \approx 0\)
- b) \(f_I > \epsilon \approx 0 \Rightarrow f_{sim} \approx 1\)
Ngokufingqa, okungenani elilodwa kulawa mathathu alandelayo liyahlangatshezwa:
- \(f_P \approx 0\): Ubuntu buyaphela ngaphambi kokuba kufinyelelwe esigabeni sokufa komuntu
- \(f_I \approx 0\): Ayikho impucuko yangemva kokuba ngumuntu enentshisekelo yokulingiswa kokhokho
- \(f_{sim} \approx 1\): Umbono wokulingisa: Siphila ekulingiseni kokhokho
Ukuze kwandiswe amathuba okuthi \(f_{sim} \approx 1\) (okucaciswa yi-Bostrom njengokucishe kube \(\frac{1}{3}\) ), ngokuzayo singakwazi nokubona amanye amathuba we \(f_P \approx 0\) kanye \(f_I \approx 0\) .
Uma i-hypothesis yokulingisa iyiqiniso, okulandelayo kuyasebenza: Njengoba \(f_{sim} \approx 1 \neq 1\) , leli cala alikushiyi ngaphandle thina (noma inzalo yethu) kusethi \(\overline{H}\) futhi, ngokwesibonelo, bangabanye babantu bokuqala ukulingisa okhokho. Iphuzu lonke, noma kunjalo, ukuthi lokhu akunakwenzeka neze. Ngakho-ke uma singahlali ekulingiseni manje, maningi amathuba okuthi inzalo yethu ayisoze yenze ukulingisa kokhokho.
Enye yezinto ezidingeka kakhulu kwiBostrom yilokho okubizwa ngokuthi yi-substrate Independence (okungukuthi ukwazi akukwazi ukusetshenziswa kuphela kumanethiwekhi we-carbon-based, biological neural in the brain, kodwa futhi nange-silicon basis kwikhompyutha). Kuyathakazelisa futhi: Ukuzimela komqondo (futhi akukho sidingo) kungenzeka ukuthi kube nokufaniswa kokufaniswa (nganoma yiliphi izinga lokujula kokudla).
Ngokubona kwami, incazelo yeqiniso le-hypothesis yokulingisa ezimpilweni zethu ingafingqwa ngaphansi kwesiqubulo esithi "Ngubani onendaba?" - kepha impikiswano yokulingisa ingubufakazi obuhehayo nakanjani.
Kuleli qophelo, eminye imisebenzi ethokozisayo kaNick Bostrom enkingeni yobuhle bokulala , impikiswano yosuku lwembubhiso nokucabanga okujwayelekile kokuzibonakalisa nakho kufanele kushiwo.