He maʻalahi a maopopo ʻole kā Nick Bostrom hoʻopaʻapaʻa hoʻopaʻapaʻa. ʻAʻole ia e hoʻāʻo e hōʻoia nei ke noho nei mākou i kahi simulate, akā ma kahi o ka hoʻolālā nani ʻana i ʻekolu mau hiki, ʻo kekahi o ia mau mea ʻoiaʻiʻo. Kākoʻo hoʻi ʻo Elon Musk i kahi palapala kākau like, nāna i hōʻike ka manaʻo i ka lehulehu ākea. ʻOi aku ka 14 mau makahiki i ka pepa kūhelu a e like me ka liʻiliʻi o nā ʻaoʻao. Maʻalahi ke hoʻomaopopo a paʻa ka ʻōlelo waena.
Hoʻolauna mua ʻia nā hōʻailona aʻe:
- \(f_P\): ʻO ka hapa o nā lāhui kanaka e ola a hiki i kahi pae posthuman
- \(f_I\): ʻO ka hapa o nā lāhui kanaka hoihoi i nā simulation kūpuna
- \(f_{sim}\): ʻO ka hapa o nā lāhui kanaka e noho nei i nā simulated kūpuna
- \(\overline{H}\): Ka helu kaulike o ka poʻe e noho nei i kahi lāhui i mua o ka posthuman
- \(\overline{N_I}\): Ka helu awelika o nā hoʻohālikelike kūpuna i hana ʻia e kahi lāhui posthuman hoihoi i nā hoʻohālikelike kūpuna
A laila:
- \(f_I \cdot \overline{N_I}\): Ka helu awelika o nā hoʻohālikelike kūpuna i hana ʻia e kahi lāhui posthuman
- \(f_P \cdot \overline{H}\): Ka helu kaulike o ka poʻe i hōʻea i kahi pae posthuman
- \(f_P \cdot \overline{H} \cdot f_I \cdot \overline{N_I}\) : Ka helu awelika o ka poʻe i nā hoʻohālikelike kūpuna (e hoʻohālike pono ʻoe i ka hakina \(f_P \cdot \overline{H}\) )
- \(f_P \cdot \overline{H} \cdot f_I \cdot \overline{N_I} +
\overline{H}\): Ka helu kaulike o ka poʻe e noho ana i nā simulate a nā kūpuna a i ʻole kahi lāhui i mua o ka postthuman
I kēia manawa ke kūlike nei nā huaʻōlelo hope hope ʻelua i ka hapa liʻiliʻi o ka poʻe e noho ana i nā hoʻohālikelike:
$$f_{sim} = \frac{f_P \cdot \overline{H} \cdot f_I \cdot \overline{N_I}}{f_P \cdot \overline{H} \cdot f_I \cdot \overline{N_I} + \overline{H}}$$
Hoʻokaʻawale mākou iā \(\overline{H}\) a hoʻopōkole (ʻo kēia ke kumu o ka hoʻopaʻapaʻa):
$$f_{sim} = \frac{f_P \cdot f_I \cdot \overline{N_I}}{f_P \cdot f_I \cdot \overline{N_I} + 1}$$
Ke manaʻo nei ʻo Bostrom i kahi \(\overline{N_I}\) , āna e hoʻāpono ai me ka holomua o ka holomua ʻenehana ma muli o nā koho conservative.
Hāpai kēia i nā hihia aʻe:
- Hihia: \(f_P \approx 0\)
- a) \(f_I \approx 0 \Rightarrow f_{sim} \approx 0\)
- b) \(f_I > \epsilon \approx 0 \Rightarrow f_{sim} \approx 0\)
- Hihia: \(f_P > \epsilon \approx 0\)
- a) \(f_I \approx 0 \Rightarrow f_{sim} \approx 0\)
- b) \(f_I > \epsilon \approx 0 \Rightarrow f_{sim} \approx 1\)
I ka hōʻuluʻulu manaʻo, loaʻa ma ka liʻiliʻi kekahi o nā hihia ʻekolu e hiki mai ana:
- \(f_P \approx 0\): Ke make nei ke kanaka ma mua o ka hiki ʻana o kahi pae posthuman
- \(f_I \approx 0\): ʻAʻohe hoihoi ka lāhui posthuman i nā simulation o nā kūpuna
- \(f_{sim} \approx 1\): Ke kuhiakau kuhi: Noho mākou i kahi simulate kūpuna
I mea e hoʻonui ai i ka likelike o \(f_{sim} \approx 1\) (a Bostrom e kuhikuhi ai ma kahi o \(\frac{1}{3}\) ), hiki iā mākou ke nānā i nā mea hou aʻe no \(f_P \approx 0\) a me \(f_I \approx 0\) .
Inā ʻoiaʻiʻo ke kuhiakau simulation, pili kēia: No ka mea \(f_{sim} \approx 1 \neq 1\) , ʻaʻole e kāpae kēia hihia iā mākou (a i ʻole nā keiki a mākou) i ka hoʻonohonoho \(\overline{H}\) a, ʻo kahi laʻana, kekahi o ka poʻe mua e alakaʻi i nā simulate a nā kūpuna. ʻO ke kiko holoʻokoʻa naʻe, ʻaʻole ia he mea nui loa ia. No laila inā ʻaʻole mākou e noho i kahi simulate i kēia manawa, hiki i kahi kiʻekiʻe o ka hiki ʻole i kā mākou keiki ke hana i kahi simulate kūpuna.
ʻO kekahi o nā mea e pono ai no Bostrom ka mea i kapa ʻia he kūʻokoʻa substrate (ʻo ia hoʻi, ʻaʻole hiki ke hoʻokō ʻia ka ʻike ma nā kalapona, nā pūnaewele neural biological i ka lolo, akā ma kahi kumu silikona i kahi kamepiula). Hoihoi pū kekahi: Kūʻokoʻa i ka manaʻo (a ʻaʻohe manawa he prerequisite) ka hiki o nā simulate i nā simulate (me kekahi pae o ka hohonu o ka pūnana ʻana).
I koʻu manaʻo, ke ʻano o ka ʻoiaʻiʻo o ke kuhiakau kuhi no ko mākou ola hiki ke hōʻuluʻulu ʻia ma lalo o ka huaʻōlelo ʻo wai lā ʻo wai ke noʻonoʻo?
Ma kēia wahi,ʻo nā pīhoihoi hana e Nick Bostrom ma ka moe nani pilikia , i ka doomsday manaʻo hoʻopiʻi kū'ē , a mau ka hoʻoponopono-PAaIEN mea mahuʻi E e hoi i oleloia.