Doodda qiyaamaha

Iyadoo loo maleynayo in tirada \(Y\) ee dhammaan dadka waligood jiray iyo ugu dambeyntii dhalan doona ay xaddidan yihiin, u oggolow \(x\) inuu noqdo booskaaga saxda ah bilowga liiska. Kadib \(0 < \frac{x}{Y} \leq 1\) . Hadda waxaan ku dhihi karnaa macquul ahaan \(95\%\) inaad ka mid tahay kuwa ugu dambeeya \(95\%\) dhammaan dadka weligii dhashay, sidaa darteed \(0,05 < \frac{x}{Y} \leq 1\) oo sidaas darteed \(Y < \frac{x}{0,05} = \frac{100 \cdot x}{5} = 20 \cdot x\) .


Marka loo eego qiyaasaha \(x \approx 6 \cdot 10^{10}\) iyo sidaas darteed \(Y < 120 \cdot 10^{10}\) . Haddii rajada noloshu ay sidaas sii ahaato oo tirada dadka isla waqtigaas nool ay degto, waxaa weli haray ku dhawaad \(10.000\) sano \(Yx = 114 \cdot 10^{10}\) . Doodda qiyaamaha waxay si isku mid ah u ansaxaysaa dhammaan qodobbada taariikhda - qofku wuxuu samayn karaa dood la mid ah \(2000\) sannado ka hor ama \(5000\) sano mustaqbalka; caqliga aasaasiga ah ayaa wali ku jiri doona (xuduuda sare ee \(Y\) ayaa sidaas u weynaan doonta).

Tijaabada fikirka ee soo socota waxay u shaqeysaa si la mid ah: Tixgeli labada urns \(A\) ee leh \(100\) kubbadaha iyo \(B\) oo leh \(100\) milyan oo kubbadood. Ma garanaysid kaadida waa kee. Haddii aad hadda si indho la'aan ah uga soo qaaddo mid ka mid ah labada urnood oo aad hesho kubbad leh nambarka \(42\) , waxay u badan tahay inaad ka timaaddo urn \(A\) marka loo eego urn \(B\) (sidoo kale aad bay u badan tahay). Waxay u badan tahay inaad ka mid tahay kuwa ugu dambeeya \(95\%\) dhammaan dadka weligaa dhashay oo aad uma badna inaad ka mid tahay dadka ugu horreeya \(5\%\) dhammaan dadka weligii dhashay).

Sidaa darteed kaadida ayaa si joogto ah u buuxinaysa kubbado cusub waqti ka dib, iyo soo saarista lambar waqti kasta waxay noo sheegaysaa wax ku saabsan tirada guud ee kubbadaha ee suurtogalka ah wakhtigaas, laakiin maaha wax ku saabsan tirada mustaqbalka ee kubbadaha ur. Tani waxay u baahan doontaa falanqaynta kaadida.

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