Ke manaʻo nei he palena ka helu \(Y\) o nā poʻe a pau i hānau ʻia, e ʻae ʻo \(x\) i kou kūlana paʻa mai ka hoʻomaka ʻana o ka papa inoa. A laila \(0 < \frac{x}{Y} \leq 1\) . Hiki iā mākou ke ʻōlelo i kēia manawa me ka likelika o \(95\%\) aia ʻoe i waena o ka \(95\%\) hope loa o nā kānaka a pau i hānau ʻia, no laila \(0,05 < \frac{x}{Y} \leq 1\) a no laila \(Y < \frac{x}{0,05} = \frac{100 \cdot x}{5} = 20 \cdot x\) .
E like me ka helu ʻana \(x \approx 6 \cdot 10^{10}\) a no laila \(Y < 120 \cdot 10^{10}\) . Inā mau ka mana'olana ola a pa'a ka heluna o ka po'e e noho ana i ka manawa like, aia ma kahi o \(10.000\) makahiki i koe no \(Yx = 114 \cdot 10^{10}\) . Ua like like ka manaʻo hoʻopaʻapaʻa doomsday ma nā wahi a pau o ka mōʻaukala - hiki i kekahi ke hana i ka hoʻopaʻapaʻa like \(2000\) makahiki aku nei a i ʻole \(5000\) makahiki i ka wā e hiki mai ana; e hoʻohana mau ana ka loina kumu (ʻoi aku ka nui o ka palena kiʻekiʻe o \(Y\) e like me ia).
Hana like ka hoʻokolohua noʻonoʻo ma lalo nei: E noʻonoʻo i nā urns ʻelua \(A\) me \(100\) pōlele a me \(B\) me \(100\) miliona mau pōlele. ʻAʻole ʻoe i ʻike i ka urn ʻo ia. Inā huki makapō ʻoe mai kekahi o nā kīʻaha ʻelua a loaʻa i ka pōleʻa me ka helu \(42\) , ʻoi aku ka nui o ka loaʻa ʻana mai ka urn \(A\) ma mua o ka urn \(B\) (ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi. aia paha ʻoe i waena o ka \(95\%\) hope loa o nā kānaka a pau i hānau ʻia a ʻaʻole paha ʻoe i waena o ka \(5\%\) mua o nā kānaka a pau i hānau ʻia).
No laila, e hoʻopiha mau ana ka urn i nā pōpō hou i ka manawa, a ʻo ka huki ʻana i kahi helu i kēlā me kēia manawa o ka manawa e haʻi mai iā mākou i kekahi mea e pili ana i ka huina o nā pōleʻa i kēlā manawa i ka manawa, akā ʻaʻole kekahi mea e pili ana i ka helu o nā pōpō i ka wā e hiki mai ana. urn. Pono kēia e nānā i ka urn.